Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 74468.430862 78661.306504 82856.703059 87366.600747 92074.406750 96840.792202 102028.223777
2026-02-08 67658.955878 74046.616969 80618.770697 87876.876738 95658.433116 103741.419715 112762.854082
2026-02-15 62384.956536 70231.358488 78484.694076 87794.349487 97984.102339 108778.802295 121059.506018
2026-02-22 59199.156516 68227.336845 77898.693452 88998.587890 101353.710543 114651.289971 130012.468868
2026-03-01 56364.328391 66318.236175 77153.546822 89778.578309 104037.089491 119593.481836 137800.035983
2026-03-08 53426.023499 64068.535952 75824.777694 89712.439797 105604.462762 123156.355429 143939.274889
2026-03-15 51108.707984 62367.308445 74971.933223 90048.666528 107507.153564 127001.784368 150326.555667
2026-03-22 49761.054428 61686.470635 75199.744164 91544.882423 110673.116590 132240.911680 158284.239321
2026-03-29 48320.526481 60805.505937 75115.866627 92608.701936 113284.296446 136809.856180 165461.367327
2026-04-05 46824.498113 59777.307595 74787.661265 93321.544314 115434.863197 140813.473926 171971.699286
2026-04-12 45048.032798 58330.445362 73889.460453 93290.492660 116651.527232 143686.307360 177136.975818
2026-04-19 43509.908112 57107.243439 73199.532156 93453.476046 118053.588582 146746.326112 182508.290134
2026-04-26 41874.116864 55721.667165 72281.399814 93320.562194 119097.562394 149399.690872 187443.228526
2026-05-03 40717.461199 54890.060962 72005.083290 93942.049801 121037.907591 153123.409477 193678.209543
2026-05-10 39296.961111 53672.345468 71203.769337 93873.397228 122101.603391 155770.932516 198612.575088
2026-05-17 38607.881101 53355.553734 71500.496176 95149.185066 124809.548920 160415.414223 205989.727980
2026-05-24 37753.278490 52790.962491 71456.067571 95973.693468 126943.770313 164358.319629 212526.667902
2026-05-31 36541.363862 51719.733325 70730.797082 95904.068740 127934.875916 166881.760315 217319.841840
2026-06-07 35583.422127 50948.657919 70359.956735 96259.113933 129440.750227 170032.817670 222893.359576
2026-06-14 35208.423068 50932.880782 70950.414753 97838.717193 132497.318156 175123.685758 230904.071919
2026-06-21 34660.930167 50664.979195 71196.166762 98961.663513 134969.410385 179492.736688 238038.994992
2026-06-28 33986.901389 50203.106540 71168.447733 99714.052381 136959.349536 183259.284906 244436.416181
2026-07-05 33025.038405 49320.130913 70558.750496 99681.279404 137919.876370 185717.754808 249189.779127